Just a quick update to let folks know what I see. Obviously the large triangle we’ve all been tracking has broken to the downside. That’s pretty bearish, and there are formations that tell me Bitcoin price, and most of the space follows, is heading into the sub $10,000 range.
For those whose philosophy is to ‘HODL’ – then great. I say that absolutely nothing has changed fundamentally and that the figures I’ve been talking for the first and second halves of the year will absolutely be achieved. So if you are sitting on your Crypto – hang tight, psychology works against most people, forcing the majority to sell at exactly the wrong time.
If you have new money to put to work, then any level beneath here is a great place to put it to work!
We have sociopaths around the globe, in South Korea, in China, in Germany, and all central bankers – who have taken notice of how these diminish their power and control. We always knew they would not go quietly, but I can assure you that they have already lost. Thus their words are meaningless, except to put FUD into those who aren’t focused on the end result. Yes, they can tamp down psychology momentarily, but in the end for them, Pandora’s box has already been opened, and will remain open.
For those who are actively trading, I personally went to as much cash (dollars) as I could at the break of the triangle – I will be rebuying hopefully at lower levels with those dollars, but certainly will have it back in before crossing that same triangle bottom on the way back up.
For the rest that I could not sell, due to exchange cash limitations, I will HODL. Most of the Alts are getting hit harder than BTC, but I see relative strength in ETH, LTC, and what was strength in NEO has now been hit hard too.
I have two targets currently from the chart below. One puts BTC in the low to mid $9,000 range, but the other puts it in the low to mid $8,000 range (from both the last H&S pattern and the initial leg drop from it). Prices need to reverse upwards now, or those targets become likely:
If we reach those target areas I will begin incrementally buying back in, especially if I see signs of capitulation selling (high volume sell off, followed by high volume reversal).
The melt-up bubble in the stock market is showing signs of losing momentum today – but momentum is very strong and uptrends are still intact. Once that reverses, I expect to see an initial flight to safety that will benefit the Dollar first. This is because all markets are priced in dollars, and when you sell stocks and debt instruments you convert them to Dollars first, thus increasing Dollar demand.
But that may be short lived, and momentum chasers may begin to pile back into cryptos that are now half the price they were. So we need to watch all markets to see the rotation of the flow of money – we’ll see momentum wane in one asset, then build in another. I think that there’s also big bottle necks in the Crypto space right now with some of the largest exchanges closed off to new money. It very well may be that we need to see them reopen in order to regain positive momentum.